Friday, December 2, 2011
The building was valued in the summer at $1.65 billion, when the Malkin family refinanced the property. The building's net annual income is $63 million, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert.
The Malkin family stake in the skyscraper dates back to the days when Harry Helmsley bought a controlling stake in the property in the early 1960s with Lawrence Wien, the father-in-law of Peter Malkin. Mr. Malkin has since taken control but only after years of battling with Ms. Helmsley, who inherited her husband's interest.
Developed in the early 1930s by group of investors led by tycoon John Raskob, the Empire State Building hit the market during the Depression and sat mostly empty for years. Gradually, though, the building filled up with hundreds of tenants and became a Hollywood darling featured in movies such as "King Kong" and "Sleepless in Seattle."
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
The deal, which moves the luxury developer into the Pacific Northwest, is a rare example of an acquisition in the hard-hit home-building sector, which continues limping through the worst housing downturn in decades.
But Toll, based in Horsham, Pa., has weathered the downturn better than its peers. So far this year, its shares have fallen less than 1%, making it the sector's strongest performer. Shares of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., another public builder, have fallen nearly 70% year to date.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Net income attributable to shareholders rose to $253 million, or 36 cents a share, from $112 million, or 16 cents, a year earlier. Cash flow from operations fell 32 percent to $241 million, the company said today in a statement.
Brookfield, led by Chief Executive Officer Bruce Flatt, focuses on property, infrastructure and renewable power and has sought to buy assets from troubled European companies. The firm raised $6.1 billion in capital in the quarter.
The fund, which is about to close, is one of the largest since the property bubble burst in 2008. But Carlyle's aggressive sales tactics reflect the reluctance of big pension funds to put new money into higher-return, higher-risk real-estate funds after suffering sharp losses during the financial crisis.
Carlyle has been offering large investors annual management fees of as little as 0.75% of assets, half the 1.5% industry standard, say people familiar with the matter. Carlyle also has raised the bar that must be cleared before the firm can share in the fund's profits, known in the industry as a hurdle rate or preferred return.
Monday, October 31, 2011
But he better move quickly. If the firm's New York office is any measure, the brokerage has been seeing top people depart.
Since 2010, when David Arena, the firm's tri-state chairman, made a high-profile departure for J.P. Morgan Chase, the New York ...
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Mall giant Simon Property Group Inc. opened an aquarium in July at its Grapevine Mills mall near Dallas. Real-estate brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. put a fencing academy in a former Old Navy store in Florida's Tallahassee Mall, and a community theater on the lower level of a former Boscov's store in Harrisburg, Pa.
Even top performing mall companies—like Simon, which reported a 19% rise in earnings Tuesday—are looking at restaurants, entertainment and other nonretail uses as a hedge against the drain from online shopping. Glimcher Realty Trust purposefully filled 25% of its upscale Scottsdale Quarter mall near Phoenix with restaurants such as Stingray Sushi and services like Drybar, a salon that specializes in blow drying women's hair. "She can't go out to lunch and have a salad and a glass of wine with her girlfriends online," Glimcher Chairman and CEO Michael Glimcher said, referring to the mall industry's coveted female shoppers.
The Arms Room gun range near Houston had a mixed reception. Mr. James's attorneys advised him to seek written statements from Target and Home Depot declaring that they didn't object to his business opening in their shopping center. Home Depot agreed, but Target declined, Mr. James said. (Target declined to comment). Later, representatives of PetSmart Inc. thanked him for boosting the center's customer traffic.
Friday, October 21, 2011
The single-tenant, net lease investment sales market is expected to continue growing, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.
"The low interest rate environment and the lack of safe-haven investment alternatives are driving new sources in build-to-suit and sale-leaseback activity, and investors have incredibly healthy appetites for stable and dependable income streams that single-tenant assets provide," said Guy Ponticiello, managing director Jones Lang LaSalle's Corporate Finance & Net Lease division.
Fully leased core properties have been highly sought-after by investors, often from overseas, and prices for these properties have been strong, according to Jane L. Mendillo, president and CEO of Harvard Management Co. in her most recent Harvard University Endowment report.
"We were able to sell some of our portfolio properties in this category at excellent values," Mendillo said. And now Harvard is ready to invest in new round of such properties.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
In Australia, data released yesterday showed consumer confidence has plunged 16.9 percent in the past year, while in the U.S. an unemployment rate over 9 percent for six months will limit retail sales growth during this year’s holiday season, the National Retail Federation said this week. For Westfield, the world’s biggest mall owner, that may increase vacancies and lower what it can charge tenants in its two biggest markets.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
What will investors abandon next? The first bout of jitters in July hit stocks. Then gold took its licks. The latest target: companies that own government-backed mortgages.
After holding up well through the summer, many mortgage real-estate investment trusts have fallen at least 15% in the last month. Such REITs tend to perform better when investors flee risky assets because they invest exclusively in government-agency-guaranteed mortgages. But Capstead Mortgage Corp. and CYS Investments now have valuations below 90% of book value, the lowest in over a year, ...
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Investments grew 166 percent to $29.7 billion in the New York area in the 12 months through August, compared with a year earlier. Investment in greater London increased 2.4 percent to $27.2 billion, according to the report based on data compiled by the New York-based broker and Real Capital Analytics Inc. Buyers are drawn to cities like New York and London because of a greater focus on the “biggest and best,” Cushman said in the report. The trend will continue in the next six months, it said.
Outside of the U.S. real estate lending tends to be tighter and is still “very focused on prime, leased assets only,” Cushman said in the report.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Big Lots at Half-Price Signals 50% Markup in Cheapest Retail LBO: Real M&A
Big Lots, which sells discontinued and overstocked brand name goods, trades at 13.9 times its so-called free cash flow, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the cheapest among its closest rivals and half the industry median. As private equity firms circle 99 Cents Only Stores (NDN) and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO), a buyer could pay a 50 percent premium for Big Lots and still get the Columbus, Ohio-based retailer at a lower price than any of its competitors, the data show.
Selling Big Lots would help Chief Executive Officer Steve Fishman hand owners a billion-dollar windfall after retailers returned 10 times as much in the past three years. While Big Lots had hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to explore options, the stock plunged 26 percent since its April high as a sale failed to materialize. The slide has made Big Lots even more affordable now to private-equity buyers, Telsey Advisory Group LLC said.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
In a series of deals finalized in recent weeks, Simon has boosted its ownership share in the 2.4 million-square-foot mall in King of Prussia, Pa., to 96% from 12.4%, according to a person familiar with the matter. The largest transaction involved Simon's purchase of a 50% stake that Australia's Lend Lease Corp.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
The same signs of increasing consumer spending that are expected to boost the retail real estate market are already positively impacting the industrial real estate market. The New York Times cited Cushman & Wakefield data that shows the vacancy rate in industrial properties declined in the first half of the year to 9.7 percent, year-to-date leasing activity is up 27 percent from a year ago, and sales volume in the first half of the year grew nearly 160 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Several companies have been especially aggressive in acquiring industrial properties, including Clarion Partners, Terren Realty Corporation, Morgan Stanley, the Cabot Group and CenterPoint Properties.
Monday, September 12, 2011
The 10 biggest U.S. restaurants that sell for less than the value of their property, plants and equipment trade at 70 cents on the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With the restaurants slumping twice as much as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, firms from Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) to Carlson Capital LP and Becker Drapkin Management LP are agitating for board seats at eateries with fixed assets that are worth an average of 53 percent more than the companies themselves. Ruby Tuesday has $1 billion of such assets, twice its market value.
The economy expanded 0.7 percent in the first half of this year, the weakest stretch since the recovery began in June 2009. As job growth stalled last month, a RBC Capital Markets survey showed one-third of Americans now plan to spend less dining out in the next 90 days, the largest proportion in almost a year.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Vacancy-plagued shopping centers in the U.S. are getting a lift from tenants who deal in sweat rather than typical retail goods.
Health clubs and gyms accounted for 8.8% of new leases signed so far this year by retail chains in the U.S., compared with 7.9% at the same point last year, according to real-estate research company CoStar Inc. The rush into shopping centers has helped fuel a 57% increase in square footage occupied by U.S. health clubs since 2007, to more than 70 million square feet.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Research Director, Calkain Cos.
Net lease cap rates averaged 7.75 percent for the first quarter of 2011, continuing the rate drop that began in the second half of 2010. The key driver in this trend has been an increased demand for high-quality net lease properties — assets which feature a strong credit tenant, good location and favorable lease terms – and the scarce supply of those high quality assets. Investors have clearly shown a lopsided preference for these triple-net-lease investment properties and, as 2011 progresses, demand will outpace supply.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
by Dorothy M. Atkins,Aspen Daily News Staff Writer
The downtown commercial core is nearly full, with a vacancy rate reaching pre-recession percentages.
About 30 retail leases have commenced in the past year, which is more than the usual handful that occur annually, said commercial real estate broker Karen Setterfield.
With the increased level of activity, there is a consensus among commercial brokers that the retail vacancy rate is somewhere between 2 and 5 percent, which pales in comparison to last year around the same time when it hovered around 9 or 10 percent. (At the beginning of 2008, less than 1 percent of restaurant, retail and office spaces were empty in the downtown core.)
Friday, September 2, 2011
The Manhattan office leasing market tightened last month even as the unpredictable stock market and stalled national economy unsettled landlords and tenants alike. Landlords, who have seen their leverage strengthen over the past year, lost a bit of confidence because of the new round of economic turmoil, some Manhattan brokers said. "The market was rising rather quickly, particularly in the better product and the better locations, [but] I think tenants' expectations [now] are that the deals should be improved and they should be more aggressive," David Hollander, a senior vice president at CB Richard Ellis, said. But that doesn't mean that most tenants are chomping at the bit to get deals done.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
By Elaine Misonzhnik, Retail Traffic Associate Editor
Net lease investors can’t seem to get enough of the drugstore sector with sales today being driven by a desire among both lenders and buyers for low risk assets with a steady income stream.
According to a report on the second-half outlook for net lease properties from Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, drugstore sales were up 10 percent, supporting a 3 percent rise in the median price for the sector to $334 per square foot. Yields have fallen to the high-6 percent to mid-7 percent range.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Zell, chairman of Chicago-based Equity International, will invest in real estate in Colombia and will eventually move on to residential projects, he said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television. In India, he plans to open hotels.
“Colombia is the next star of Latin America,” Zell said on “In the Loop” with Betty Liu. “In India, we’re doing a hotel/motel program like Residence Inn at Marriott and we hope to build a chain across the country.”
Over 80% of the countries surveyed in the RICS Global Distressed Property Monitor reported heightened levels of interest from specialist funds in the second quarter with three quarters of these reporting even greater levels of demand than last quarter.
Indeed, in over half of the countries covered, the net balance figure for second quarter demand for distressed property outstrips the comparative number for the third quarter expected supply, most noticeably in Japan, China, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Investor demand rose most dramatically in Japan and Hungary this quarter, where net balance scores moved from +6 to +68 and +3 to +64 quarter over quarter, respectively. In Italy, Poland and Russia agents reported noticeable shifts in sentiment with demand swinging from negative into positive territory.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
The securities will be offered in September and October, bringing 2011 sales to about $25 billion, according to Julia Tcherkassova, a commercial-mortgage debt analyst at Barclays Capital in New York....
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Being granted a beer license is not simple. If an objection for a permit has been filed for a particular location, the permit is often denied and an appeal hearing is set for a later date, The Baxter Bulletin reported. However, Walgreens and Walmart received similar approvals in 2010 and 2009, respectively.
Some of the nation's largest pension funds are starting to back away from trophy properties in the most expensive real-estate markets over concerns a new bubble is inflating.
After property prices crashed during the financial crisis, pension funds—among the biggest investors in commercial real estate—turned their investment strategies away from risky speculative projects and toward properties considered "core," well-leased buildings that are seen as low risk due to their stable income, in cities such as New York, Washington and San Francisco.
Monday, August 15, 2011
The trend may be cut short. Turmoil in financial markets over the past three weeks -- triggered by concern that Spain and Italy will struggle to pay off their debts, signs that the U.S. will remain mired in sluggish growth through next year and Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating -- may send buyers back to prime cities and push prices even higher, as long as the economy doesn’t deteriorate so much that trophy properties suffer.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Take the case of Mesa West Capital. The Los Angeles-based private lender this year has originated about $600 million in loans, already topping its previous record year in 2007, when its volume hit $498 million. The firm is on pace to hit $1 billion by the end of December, according to Jeff Friedman, the company's co-founder and co-chief executive.
Part of the new business comes from rising sales volume in the commercial-real-estate market.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Over the past 18 months, values nationally have been rising, thanks in part to Wall Street's success in rekindling the business of pooling together commercial mortgages and selling them to investors as bonds. This has provided a critical source of deal financing for property buyers.
But the new-issue market for these securities has hit a speed bump amid turmoil in the capital markets, causing a key set of lenders to back off from making new loans. The result is that deal activity has fallen, putting the brakes on the rise in values.
"Lending has clearly slowed significantly," said Richard Parkus, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Real-estate companies have clearly noticed. Late last month, for example, Hotel chain Strategic Hotels & Resorts Inc. obtained a $145 million loan for its InterContinental Hotel in Chicago from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. But the closing of the mortgage, which J.P. Morgan plans to securitize, was delayed for days because of uncertainty in the markets, said Laurence Geller, Strategic Hotels' chief executive. A representative for J.P. Morgan declined to comment
Monday, August 8, 2011
As The Real Deal previously reported, the four-story building was originally put on the market by David Z. for $12 million in 2010. Built in 1900 and completely renovated in 2004, the 5,100-square-foot walk-up building has 11,682 square feet of additional air rights, plus a basement. A store on the first floor is occupied by the GEOX footwear company. Retail space on the second floor is occupied by the Boston-based Prana yoga, and there are residential loft apartments on the third and fourth floors.
CommonWealth REIT, of Newton, Mass., is buying the 51-story office building named One Shell Square from MetLife Inc., the people said. CommonWealth and MetLife declined to comment on the deal.
The deal reflects the pressure many buyers are facing to push into new territories for buildings as competition has made major market bargains scarcer. "Things have been getting a little more challenging," John Popeo, CommonWealth's chief ...
Friday, August 5, 2011
The company is seeing “steady demand and controlled supply within our primary markets,” Chief Executive Officer Ric Clark said in the statement. “We remain optimistic about our performance over the balance of the year and the next few years to come.”
Brookfield Office Properties Inc., owner of Manhattan’s World Financial Center, reported funds from operations that beat analyst estimates after increasing revenue and adding income from Australian properties acquired last year.
Revenue Up 30%
FFO, a gauge of a property company’s ability to generate cash, was $152 million, or 30 cents a share, in the second quarter, the New York-based landlord said today in a statement. Analysts expected 26 cents a share, the average of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. FFO was $201 million, or 40 cents, a year earlier, when results included a $53 million gain from the repayment of a loaThe companywide occupancy rate was 93.3 percent, down from 95 percent at the end of last year and 94.8 percent a year earlier, according to the supplemental report.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
U.S. commercial property prices increased in May for the first time in six months as a rebound in distressed real estate helped boost values, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index rose 6.3 percent from April, the largest gain since the measure began in 2000. It’s down 11 percent from a year earlier and 46 percent below the peak of October 2007, the company said today.
“A number of transactions that were recorded in May had their most recent prior sales in 2009 as the market was beginning to bottom and subsequently traded for substantial returns,” Tad Philipp, director of commercial real estate research at Moody’s, said in a separate statement. “We are likely to see a pickup in post-peak repeat sales and expect such transactions to play an important role in helping drive the CPPI higher.”
NNN Lease Market News
The growth in technology businesses that has boosted the San Francisco office market has spilled over into a blighted six-block stretch of Market Street that until now has missed out on most booms in the city's commercial-property valuations.
The "midmarket" office corridor on the southern edge of the Tenderloin district got its first boost in April when Twitter Inc. announced plans to relocate its headquarters to the gritty area better known for empty storefronts and government workers than Internet buzz.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
U.S. retailers expanding abroad include some of the biggest names in the business. Banana Republic, for example, is expected to open its first French store this year. In 2010, Apple opened its largest flagship store in the world in London's Covent Garden. Fashion retailers Tommy Hilfiger and Michael Kors have built flagship stores in Paris.
The outlook is better in some countries than others. According to CBRE, the development pipeline is still "considerably smaller" than in 2007 and 2008 —the most recent peak in shopping-center development. But construction starts are rising in markets such as Turkey, Russia, and Poland. There are 146 shopping centers under construction in Europe today, says CBRE, and the highest level of activity is in Europe's emerging markets.
"The shopping center development market in Turkey has sprung back to life," Neville Moss, CBRE's head of retail research in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said in a statement.
Another thing in Europe's favor is that American retailers are finding it easier to experiment and try new strategies in new markets than to revamp worn models at home.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Calkain Companies Inc., a national real estate investment brokerage firm, has recently opened a Boston-area office, located in Burlington, in order to better serve the New England and Northeast markets. The office will be staffed by three industry veterans: senior managing director Stan Wyrwicz, formerly the chief financial officer of General Investment and Development Cos. and also CFO with Cabot, Cabot and Forbes; managing director Rich Murphy, who has been part of the Calkain team for a year and who previously worked at the controller level for the Mills corporation Follow this company and Akridge Real Estate Services; and vice president Mike O’Mara, wo has been in commercial real estate for 20 years.
CB Richard Ellis/New England, based in Boston, has named Jason Levendusky, Taidgh McClory and Patrick Mulready partners of the firm. Levendusky, who joined CBRE/NE in 2001, is a senior member of the Massachusetts suburban brokerage team. McClory, who joined CBRE/NE in 2003, is senior vice president, director of marketing & client services. Mulready, who began his career at CBRE/NE in 1996 as an appraiser, specializing in the valuation of office properties throughout Greater Hartford, transferred to the Hartford brokerage staff in 1998 to focus on the sale of investment properties.
Individual investors will continue to be attracted to Net Lease deals because those transactions are viewed as safe, income-producing real estate investments, says CEO of Calkain Jonathan W Hipp “We think that Boston-area is going to stay very competitive net lease market.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Calkain Net Lease Market Report provides in-depth analysis of the net lease market
A recent theme in the net lease market has been the success of primary markets compared to their tertiary counterparts. While primary markets have been resilient and recently showed remarkable success, tertiary markets continue to struggle. The Washington DC area (D.C., Maryland and Virginia) is chief among the top tier markets and its relative success is easily measurable.
Net lease cap rates for retail, market compressed in the first quarter of 2011, while investment sales remained strong in the single tenant market,according to data from Calkain. Calkain Research provides in-depth analysis of the net lease market. Our intimate knowledge and years of experience in the net lease industry gives us the unique opportunity to provide thought leadership and perspective.Through highly focused coverage over a diverse range of topics, we facilitate a culture of knowledge and enable intelligent investment strategies.
The net lease market continues to improve, but many of the factors driving this appear short term. As more properties come to market due to improved pricing fundamentals, many believe that the cap rate compression will plateau. The high demand and scarcity of high performance markets will continue drive their cap rates lower.
Monday, June 6, 2011
National Retail Properties announces new and expanded $450 million unsecured credit facility Co announces the closing of a new $450 million unsecured credit facility, replacing its existing $400 million credit facility. The new facility matures May 2015, with an option to extend maturity to May 2016. The facility is priced at LIBOR plus 150 basis points. The new facility also includes an accordion feature to increase the facility size to $650 million.
Calkain Research provides a variety of reports on all aspects of the net lease market. Our coverage includes: retail, industrial, urban, QSR, banks, pharmacy and more. We present a comprehensive and detailed picture of the market; providing investors with the information they need.
Briefing.com is the leading Internet provider of live market analysis for U.S. Stock, U.S. Bond, and world FX market participants.
National Retail Properties (NYSE: NNN), a real estate investment trust, invests in single-tenant retail properties generally subject to long-term, net leases.
As one of only 114 out of the more than 10,000 publicly-traded companies that have increased annual dividends for 21 or more consecutive years, we are a powerful partner for our retail customers and a proven investment for our shareholders. The average annual total return to shareholders has been 13.6% over the past 15 years.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
The cities had three of the four biggest gains in sales by dollar volume among major metropolitan areas outside the coasts in the first quarter, according to CoStar Group Inc. (CSGP), a Washington-based property-research firm. Sales rose 127 percent from a year earlier in Minneapolis, 108 percent in Dallas and 89 percent in Denver. Nationally, the increase was 47 percent.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Analysts projected comparable-store sales would rise 4.1 percent, according to the average of seven estimates compiled by Bloomberg News. Sales in the U.S. climbed 4 percent, the Oak Brook, Illinois-based company said today in a statement.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
The overall composite score rose a point to 65 compared with the prior quarter, based on a range of 1 at the weakest end and 100 at the strongest. That puts it within two points of the highest scoring bloc, which Moody's calls "green."
Across all sectors, measures of market strength either improved slightly or stayed the same, the agency reported. The multifamily composite sector remains the only one with a green score, which held steady at 88. Retail also held steady at 64 during the fourth quarter.
Friday, April 22, 2011
“Given the current market conditions and the building’s premier location, we believe this property will be well received by investors and developers looking to acquire high quality real estate in the D.C. area,” Senior Managing Director Susan Carras said in a statement. She and Senior Managing Director Brian Dawson are leading the assignment.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Shareholders SunAmerica Asset Management Corp. and Cambiar Investors LLC say Chief Executive Officer Larry Merlo, 55, may have to separate CVS Caremark’s drugstore and pharmacy-benefits units if the largest U.S. provider of prescription drugs doesn’t lift profit growth. Merlo last month replaced Thomas Ryan, 58, who orchestrated the purchase of Caremark RX Inc. in March 2007. Since then, the stock gained just 3.4 percent through yesterday, trailing a 14 percent advance for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that sell consumer staples.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Same-store sales at Victoria’s Secret, owned by Limited Brands Inc., rose 19 percent, more than 10 times the rate predicted by estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc. Industrywide, retailers posted an increase of 2.2 percent, compared with the average projection for a 0.5 percent drop.
Consumers, whose purchases account for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, withstood a 7.2 percent surge in gasoline prices as they bought up clothes and luxury goods. Some have more to spend after the jobless rate fell to a two-year low last month, helped by employment in business services and health care.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
The vacancy rate rose to just over 10 percent, after falling into single digits at the end of 2010. Class A office space saw tenant gains, offset by tenants leaving Class B properties. CBRE said.
On the sales side, $1.5 billion in commercial real estate transactions during the first quarter was equal to almost half of total sales in 2010.
Monday, April 4, 2011
The news of the listing of the REIT, part of Mr. Li's flagship Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., comes less than three weeks after he raised $5.4 billion from the listing in Singapore of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, which owns deep-water ports in Hong Kong and China.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
A Family Dollar shopper in Charlotte, N.C. The chain plans to renovate at least 600 stores.
.The company said customers are still struggling financially and continue to seek bargains in apparel, pantry staples and other items. Family Dollar also said it plans to accelerate new-store growth and begin a store-renovation program.
"More middle-ish income consumers are starting to shop with us," Howard Levine, the company's chairman and chief executive, said during a conference call. "We think that we have a great opportunity here to try to get some stickiness to that customer."
Shares in Family Dollar rose 1.6% to $44.05 at 4 p.m. Wednesday in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The company's stock is up 60% so far this year.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Buildings in New York, San Francisco, Boston, San Diego and San Jose, California, will have some of the strongest growth after office rents fell 4.9 percent nationally last year, Alan Billingsley, head of research for RREEF, an investment unit of Deutsche Bank AG (DB), said yesterday at a conference in San Francisco.
“Net operating income is still moving downward, but when rent growth starts, it really takes off,” Billingsley said.
U.S. commercial property prices fell 4.3 percent from a year earlier in January, the second straight monthly decline, as distressed sales in all sectors held back values, the Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index showed March 22. The delinquency rate on loans packaged as commercial mortgage- backed securities rose to a record 9.2 percent in February, Moody’s said March 15.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Monday, March 7, 2011
Inditex acquired the 39,000-square-foot (3,600-square- meter) storefront between West 52nd and 53rd streets, the Arteixo, Spain-based company said today in a statement posted on its website. The site was the home of the National Basketball Association’s flagship shop, where it sold team jerseys and other memorabilia.
That deal helped the tower’s owner, Kushner Cos., cover some of the debt incurred after purchasing the building the year before for $1.8 billion, then the most ever paid for a single NNN Lease Investment U.S. building.
Inditex is one of the worlds largest fashion distributors, with eight sales formats -Zara, Pull and Bear, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Stradivarius, Oysho, Zara Home and Uterqüe - boasting 4.430 stores in 73 countries.
The Inditex Group is comprised of over one hundred companies associated with the business of textile design, manufacturing and distribution.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Allianz Real Estate, a unit of German insurer Allianz SE, is telling investors in roadshows that it plans to invest about €11 billion ($15 billion) in European property, aiming to take its portfolio to €30 billion. Allianz Real Estate, which is looking for yields of between 5% and 6%, wants to have about 45% of its portfolio in offices, 25% in retail and 15% in residential. Offices account for 63% of Allianz's portfolio, residential is 20%, and retail is about 17%, according to Allianz Real Estate.
Monday, February 28, 2011
The purchase of 588 malls, at the price they were valued at as of Dec. 31, may allow Centro’s Australian operations to continue as an independent company, said one of the people, who declined to be identified before an official statement. The deal may be announced as early as today, the person said.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
"We feel this is an opportune time to test the market given the abundance of capital looking for core assets in top markets like Houston," Robert Merck, head of MetLife's real-estate investments, wrote in an e-mail. He confirmed that MetLife was selling a stake in the building, but he wouldn't say what size.
Partial sales are attractive strategies to landlords, partly because there is a lot of investor interest in trophy properties. Some office buildings in top markets are up over 40% in value by some measures since the market hit bottom in 2009.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
The 67-meter Montevetro building in Dublin's Grand Canal Dock district, has 15 stories, 210,000 square feet of office space and can house about 2,000 staff.
Google Ireland head John Herlihy said the new building will give it extra space to relocate some teams at other Dublin sites, including its European headquarters on Barrow Street, and "have the space and flexibility to support our future operations.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
CB Richard Ellis will purchase businesses from ING Real Estate Investment Management, or REIM, with 44.7 billion euros ($60.5 billion) in assets, Amsterdam-based ING said in a statement today. ING also agreed to sell $100 million in equity stakes in REIM funds and the real estate investment management firm Clarion Partners. The U.S. company will be bought by Clarion management and Lightyear Capital.
Read the Full Story from Retail Traffic
Monday, February 14, 2011
The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter and is subject to a working capital adjustment, Atlantic City, New Jersey-based Trump Entertainment said today in a statement. Landry’s, a restaurant group taken private by its management last year, operates Golden Nugget casinos in downtown Las Vegas and Laughlin, Nevada.
Friday, February 11, 2011
More than three years later, the developer, FLAnk, has closed on the purchase of the building on Hudson and West 12th streets. But, unlike scores of investors who walked from deals or renegotiated drastically lower prices with sellers after the crunch hit, FLAnk paid just a few million dollars short the full pre-crash price: $33.3 million.
After three years, a developer has closed on the purchase of a building at Hudson and West 12th streets.
.The deal is the latest sign that the city's residential development engine is beginning to crank up again. FLAnk was able to secure construction financing from Quinlan Development Group and M&T Bank to convert the property into 10 condos ranging from 3,300 to 9,000 square feet, according to Jon Kully, a principal at FLAnk.
The bank typically closes underperforming branches and will be “more conservative” about opening new ones, Walter Elcock, the executive responsible for the firm’s branches, said last week in an interview. He declined to say how many will be closed. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based firm plans trials this month of video conference rooms where Merrill Lynch associates dispense advice to customers from afar, Elcock said.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Earnings will be as much as $1.80 a share in 2011, the company said yesterday after markets closed. That compared with a previous target of as much as $1.71. The Austin, Texas-based grocer also raised its sales growth forecasts for the year, citing increasing consumer confidence.
Centro said on Dec. 22 it had received several expressions of interest. Blackstone Group LP made a preliminary bid for some assets, a person with knowledge of the offer said in December. Centro, based in Melbourne, ceded control to its bankers at the end of 2008 and put its assets up for sale after an acquisition spree in the U.S. backfired as the credit markets seized up.
The person briefed on Morgan Stanley and Starwood’s plans asked not to be identified because the information is private.
Mark Lake, a spokesman for Morgan Stanley in New York, and Tom Johnson, a spokesman for Greenwich, Connecticut-based Starwood Capital, declined to comment. Stacy Slater, a New York- based spokeswoman for Centro, also declined to comment.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
With Americans increasingly using smartphones to comparison shop, consumers are unwilling to wait for sales if they find better deals elsewhere, said Mike Vitelli, executive vice president and co-head of the North America division.
St. Joe will consider a new business plan, partnerships, joint ventures, alliances, asset sales and acquisitions, the Watersound, Florida-based developer said yesterday in a statement. The announcement came a month after Bruce Berkowitz and Charles M. Fernandez of Fairholme Capital Management LLC, the company’s biggest shareholder, were named to the board.
“This is a prudent time to step to the sidelines,” Buck Horne, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates Inc., wrote in a note to clients today in which he cut the stock to “market perform” from “strong buy.” “A neutral investment position is appropriate until more details are revealed.”
Waesche had spent six months seeking a more affordable alternative to terms being offered by his lender, a unit of Capmark Financial Group Inc. Citigroup was able to offer a better rate as the market for bonds tied to commercial mortgages revives following its 2008 collapse. The loan was completed in November, and was part of an $876 million securitized debt sale by Citigroup and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in December.
The company reported net income of $2.3 million, or 33 cents per share, compared with a loss of $19.3 million, or $12.90 per share a year ago.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected a loss of 20 cents per share.
The Redding-based parent company for North Valley Bank did not record a provision for loan and lease losses in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31. A year ago, the provision was $9 million.
It also had a $15.2 million impairment of goodwill charge in the year-ago quarter, but none in the current quarter.
Calgary's downtown office vacancy rate dipped to a low of 0.5 per cent in 2006 but then climbed to 15.7 per cent in 2009, said Savard. It ended 2010 at 14.4 per cent.
CITI is projecting the downtown vacancy rate to be 14 per cent this year and 12 per cent in 2012 despite the addition of the massive Bow tower project, and its 1.7 million square feet, and Eighth Avenue Place, and its one million square feet, to the office inventory.
Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com
HI-Boston, a non-profit organization that operates seven youth hostels throughout New England, will lease back the entire 22,000-square-foot building for approximately 18 months and continue to operate its hostel at the site. Hemenway Realty Ventures is currently in the process of determining the future use of the building for the period subsequent to HI-Boston’s occupancy.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Calpers, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, is looking to shift the focus of its $15 billion real estate portfolio to more stable, income producing properties. Could this include a new interest in the net lease market?
Monday, February 7, 2011
The appeal of DC as a global tourist destination continues to drive the local economy. The data on hotel bookings as quoted in HotelNewsNow.com offers a testament to the strength of the DC metropolitan region. It provides yet another indicator of why investors seeking stable NNN assets are eager to acquire property in this market.
- The Unity at Ridgeway medical office property in Rochester, N.Y., a Class-A property master leased to Unity Health System for 20 years (four-story, 120,000 sq ft).
- The 20,473 sq. ft. Guardian Urgent Care Center in Westminster, Colo. (initial lease term of 15 years).
- A distribution center in St. Louis, Mo. (81,000 sq. ft) leased to Jeffco Trucking for an initial term of 20 years.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Borders' shares have tumbled 47 percent this week to close at a new 52-week low of 39 cents.
Borders, the nation's second-largest bookstore retailer, said on Sunday that it was postponing its payments to vendors, landlords and other parties this month in order to refinance or restructure its debts.
Yum is coming off a strong year, with fourth-quarter profit up 27% over the prior year. Chief Financial Officer Richard Carucci said Yum estimates its 2011 commodities costs will be up 4% in the U.S., 5% in China, and 3% in its international division, YRI.
While Yum's commodities contracts have it fairly locked in for the year, Carucci said, if food costs don't come down, the company has about $40 million of further exposure: $25 million in China and $15 million in the U.S.
Yum recently raised prices in China, to offset both commodities and wage inflation in the country, and said sales remain strong. Other companies, such as McDonald's Corp. (MCD), Yum's biggest fast-food competitor, have also been forced to increase their prices in China.Thanks to strong sales in China, the restaurant operator's fourth-quarter earnings climbed 26% to 63 cents a share, beating views for 60 cents. Total sales grew 6% to $3.56 billion, also above expectations.
In the U.S., Yum said it plans to grow its Taco Bell locations to 8,000 from 5,000.Yum! Brands, Inc., based in Louisville, Ky., is the world's largest restaurant company in terms of system restaurants with more than 37,000 restaurants in over 110 countries and territories and more than 1 million associates. Yum! is ranked #216 on the Fortune 500 List, with nearly $11 billion in revenue in 2009. Four of our restaurant brands – KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and Long John Silver's – are the global leaders of the chicken, pizza, Mexican-style food and quick-service seafood categories.
Article published by the Wall st Journal.-By Annie Gasparro, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2244; email@example.com
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim Helú says he is to invest $8.3bn in 19 countries, mainly in Latin America.
The bulk of the money, some $3.6bn, is destined for his businesses in Mexico, including telecommunications, mining and road-building.
Drug-related violence affecting some regions of Mexico was no reason to stop investing in the country, Mr Slim said.
Last year he knocked Bill Gates off the top of Forbes magazine's billionaire's list with a fortune put at $53.5bn.
The planned $3.6bn for Mexico, a 13% rise on last year, would go to a range of sectors, with the bulk going to telecommunications, Mr Slim told a news conference in Mexico City.
"Whoever doesn't invest, be it out of fear or caution, will be left behind," he said.
Mr Slim said he believed the Mexican economy would continue to grow in 2011 and 2012. www.wikipedia.com
2008 marks the first year when 78 million baby-boomers born between 1946 to 1964 start retiring. This is the first time in the US history that there is so many people who will be eligible for American Association of Retired Persons membership. So how will this affect you when it’s your turn to retire? And what should you do now? Since it has never happened before, you don’t have the benefits of learning from history. Let’s look at the big picture from 30,000 feet:
Uncle Sam is currently about $ 1.30 for every dollar they collect taxes. Since March 2008, the U.S. national debt to over $ 9,380,000,000,000 dollars, or about $ 30,894 per head exploded. The borrowing rate also increased, as he 2380000000000 $ Dollar has more debts are less than 4 years and the budget deficit for 2008 may be expanded to more than $ 500B. The government Accountability Office (GAO) warned of this type of fiscal policy is simply unacceptable!
Many investors are looking for a safe place to put their money with the wild fluctuations in the financial market. Stable, predictable investment vehicles are increasingly hard to find, but smart investors do have choices. One of the better choices is to invest in single-tenant, net leased properties, which many investors also call a corporate bond combined with real estate investments that still make sense today. Here's what you need to know about single-tenant, net leased properties: What is a single-tenant, net lease investment? A single-tenant, net-leased investment is typically a freestanding office, retail, or industrial building that is leased and occupied by one user or one company. Typically the tenant has committed to a long-term lease - usually longer than 10 years, and as long as 25 years with increasing rent over the lease term. What is a net lease? There are different types of leases for commercial property in the U.S. The two most common leases are full-service leases and net leases. A full-service lease means that the tenant is paying one base amount to the landlord/owner to occupy the space and the owner pays all the expenses related to the building including insurance and property taxes. With a full-service lease, the landlord/owner also is responsible for all maintenance related to the building. For example, if a thunderstorm damages the roof, the landlord/owner must pay for the repairs. In comparison, a tenant with a net lease is responsible for paying rent plus some or all of the operating expenses of the building such as taxes, insurance premiums, repairs, and utilities. Depending on how the leases are structured, they can be net-net leases or triple-net-leases. Specifically, in the case of a triple net lease, also known as NNN leases, the tenant agrees to pay all of the building's operating expenses, real estate taxes and insurance.
Square Footage: 3,119
Property Type: Restaurant, Retail
Lease Term: 15 yrs
Lease Structure: NNN
Contact Broker: Rick Fernandez
Regarding Property: Arbys - Wake Forest, NC
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
As a relative newcomer to the net lease market, Wawa convenient store gas stations are one of the hottest sought after triple net lease investment properties in the net lease market today. With an implied credit rating of BBB- / outlook Stable, most investors understand the credit-worthiness of
this privately owned company, which is considered one of the strongest convenient store operators in the country. In 2009, Wawa was ranked No. 55 in Forbes’ America’s Largest Private Companies list. Wawa currently operates more than 570 convenient stores throughout the mid-Atlantic, 270+ of which include gasMost Wawa net leases properties offer an investor long-term security and absolutely no management responsibilities in the form of a 20-year primary term nnn ground lease. These ground leases provide additional investment security given the nature of the real estate investment made by Wawa’s real estate team, including the Wawa Engineering and Construction Department which is responsible for the design, engineering and construction of all new stores and remodels. As with any ground lease investment, a landlord should be comforted by the fact that the tenant, in this case Wawa, has made a significant capital investment in the construction of the building, which at the end of the lease will become property of the ground lease owner.
Also driving the demand and value of Wawa net lease properties is the strong real estate fundamentals of the property sites. Wawa’s real estate team has specific site select criteria, which focus on key trade area location characteristics. Wawa net lease properties are typically located at signalized corners and out-parcel/pads of shopping centers with good visibility and ingress/egress. Ideal trade area characteristics include adequate population and minimum traffic counts of at least 25,000 vehicles per day. Sites should be located on high-volume intersections near other commercial traffic generators.
Wawa's namesake is a Native American word for the Canada Goose in flight, which is also incorporated into the company's logo. Wawa owns and operates convenience stores and gasoline stations in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. These stores offer a fresh food selection under the Wawa brand including deli products, wraps, breakfast sandwiches, bakery products, fresh produce, and dairy products. The first Wawa store opened in April 1964 in Folsom, Pennsylvania.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
The investment sales team will be led by Betty Friant of the Calkain Realty Advisors. The property is listed for sale with an asking price of $2.85M, which provides an initial cap rate of 8.88%, with predominantly medical tenants.
The property is located in a gateway entrance to Strasburg, at an interstate intersection and near Virginia's Inland Port. Newly constructed in 2009, this modern brick professional complex includes 15,000+ sq ft of space. The property currently offers a well-located and highly visible home to numerous retailers and various medical practices.
Strasburg is situated in the top of Virginia, approximately one hour west of the urban concentration of Northern Virginia and Washington DC. The area is the Mid-Atlantic crossroads for Interstates 81 and 66. Interstate 66 provides easy access to points east including Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. Interstate 81 travels north-south the entire length of Shenandoah County, with nine interchanges including one at I-66, north of Strasburg.
Cedar Creek Station is strategically located along Old Valley Pike near the intersection of Interstate 81 and Route 11, just sound of Interstate 66. There are over 100,000 residents living within a 15 mile radius. The surrounding area includes lodging, industrial complexes and a retirement community.
Investors interested in net lease investment NN’s are more likely to have a passion about their business. They want to inform clients, grow their customer base and put their name on the Net lease market, while investors interested in NNN’s are more likely to be concerned purely with the profitability of the buildings.
For More Information Please Contact
By: David Sobelman, Executive Vice President, Calkain Cos.
As published in Scotsman Guide's Commercial Edition.
Despite the economic downturn and the fact that many aspects of the commercial real estate industry still need time to season before true recovery takes place, some niche segments of the market are actually performing extremely well. In fact, some are at the same level they reached at the height of the market.
Triple-net-lease investment properties, in particular, may be a true bright spot on the commercial investment horizon. Here's why.
Triple net lease properties are probably some of the most commonly noticed commercial real estate in the market. Most of the assets are drugstores, bank branches, restaurants, home-improvement centers and the like. These are core assets that have daily users and requirements. Typically, they are single-tenant buildings where, through the lease structure, the tenant is responsible for the taxes, insurance, and maintenance and management of the building - the three "nets."
Investors have a strong appetite for passive income in today's market, as there are few alternatives for them to receive a return that is equal to or better than what net lease assets provide. Additionally, it seems that lenders are becoming more comfortable with the asset type - many transactions in today's market are using some sort of lender-provided leverage.
Mortgage brokers are an integral part of the lending process for net lease investments, especially because one lender won't provide the best rate and terms for a particular investor every time. Brokers who want to increase their business in this asset class should understand what goes into funding triple net lease properties and be aware of the market's emerging trends.
Underwriting the tenant
Like in any underwriting process, lenders consider the real estate's value first. With net lease investments, however, the current tenant's credit also is weighed heavily.
Because tenants occupying single-tenant buildings typically sign long leases - sometimes for as many as 25 years or more - lenders want to know who is actually paying the rent to support the property for that long. Therefore, the underwriting of the tenant's credit becomes a key factor for lenders considering net leased assets.
There is some standardization for rating tenants, which comes primarily from credit-rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's Investor Service, Fitch Ratings, etc. These agencies each have their own alphanumeric system to report how a particular company is performing from a credit perspective. S&P, for instance, has ratings that begin at AAA as the best-possible credit and incrementally go down to D.
In today's lending environment, net lease tenants with an S&P credit rating of BBB or greater have a better chance of getting a lender's attention because they are seen to be less risky. Tenants with credit ratings less than BBB are perceived to be more likely to default over the term of the lease.
In fact, a Moody's study quantified this phenomenon, stating that companies with a BBB- credit rating have a 4-percent chance of defaulting on their lease within any five-year period. Conversely, a company that has rating of B- has a 43-percent chance of defaulting on its lease within the same period. As a matter of comparison, companies with AAA ratings have a 0.15-percent chance of defaulting. It is pretty clear why lenders focus their underwriting on the potential tenant's credit.
Funding net leases
Although mortgage brokers unfamiliar with this asset class may think this type of debt comes from sophisticated sources housed in a class-A skyscraper on Wall Street, the vast majority of loans for net lease investments come from banks.
Real Capital Analytics, a market-research company, recently reported that 51 percent of single-tenant acquisition transactions completed to-date in 2010 came from a traditional bank. It also reported, however, that 40 percent came from a national bank and 11 percent was from a regional or local bank.
It seems that when a recession hits, the lending environment changes to a point that sophisticated financing instruments are no longer needed to drive the market. Instead, individual relationships between borrowers, lenders and their conduits (i.e., mortgage brokers) are the primary source of transaction volume.
In addition, Real Capital Analytics reported that 30 percent of the transactions completed this past year used existing financing that was assumed by a new buyer. Anecdotally, investors active in the market at the beginning of this year did not have as many sources of capital. Those who made purchases that required financing were given financing quotes that were outrageous and did not allow the transaction to make sense to the investor. Therefore, they assumed the debt from the previous owner because the terms and interest rates were more favorable than the market at that time. Sourcing debt for net lease investments is becoming easier, however.
Gaining market share
Single-tenant properties have become so popular this past year that they comprised roughly 35 percent of all commercial real estate transactions completed in the first two quarters of the year, according to data from Real Capital Analytics. By comparison, when the market was at its peak in 2007, only 20 percent of all transactions included the asset class.
With more than $425 billion in total commercial sales in 2007 - which included $85 billion in single-tenant sales - compared to $35 billion in total sales for these past first two quarters - which included $12.25 billion in single-tenant sales - it is apparent that with fewer transactions, more people are steering toward stabilized and lower-risk properties.
Capitalization rates - or cap rates - are a quick snapshot of an investor's return. In today's market, cap rates are roughly 6 percent to 8 percent for creditworthy properties. When a basic comparison is made using other passive investments, it is fairly clear why investors are seeking to put their capital to work in the property type.
Most investors who have cash available to make passive, nonspeculative investments are using basic money-market or savings accounts to hold the cash. When returns for those investment vehicles hover around 1 percent, the investor is motivated to find alternative investments for that capital while also maintaining a steady and safe cash flow over a period of time. Net lease properties are filling that void.
There are different periods where lenders will have a strong appetite for a particular tenant and less so for other tenants, and this changes over time. Brokers who stay on top of these kinds of trends in their markets and leverage their relationships with lenders can help clients find the best rates and terms at any particular moment.
As an example, Walgreen Co. drugstores - a common triple net lease tenant - have an S&P credit rating of A+. As such, lenders are comfortable with these stores' credit and viability as a longstanding tenant. At the beginning of this year, however, there were more than 450 Walgreens stores available for purchase as net lease investments.
Because most investors need financing to purchase a single store and the average sale price for a Walgreens store is about $5 million, mortgage brokers were engaged to find the best debt. Lenders, however, found that they had too many Walgreens loans on their balance sheets and started to slow down the distribution of debt for that tenant. Brokers show their value in these scenarios by finding other lending sources that aren't as saturated with one particular tenant.
Supply and demand dictates the rate and terms of a particular tenanted-occupied building. Because of their popularity, Walgreens investments typically garner a higher interest rate. Other companies that have S&P credit ratings of A+ and similar lease terms, but higher price tags and therefore fewer buyers may have substantially lower interest rates.
Lenders, therefore, dictate rates and terms based not only on the tenant's credit, but also on subjective factors that move markets in different directions at different times. Mortgage brokers should be cognizant of these trends and have their arsenal of lending sources available for their clients as market indicators change.
Net lease properties have proven to be a strong asset class in this recovery -driven market. Lenders are seeking assets for their portfolios to maintain strong balance sheets. It's always better to have a stabilized net lease investment earning income for the lender and the investor on the books as opposed to vacant, speculative land that likely has an undetermined value for future development.
Mortgage brokers who focus on this asset class can take advantage of the new demand for these properties, as they are some of the only properties getting funded with rates and terms last seen at the height of the market.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
China had $197.1 billion of transactions in real estate market last year, 23 percent more than in 2009, the New York based company said in a statement today. That represented 34 percent of the $582 billion of deals worldwide, down from 41 percent the previous year as Chinese authorities sought to prevent the property market from overheating.
About 95 percent of investments in Chinese real estate market in 2010 were land deals for development projects, according to the statement. The largest was the purchase of a site in Nanjing for $1.78 billion.
The U.S. commercial real estate market has taken longer to recover from the financial crisis than Asia and Europe. The $55.3 billion of U.S. deals made in the last three months of 2010 made it the strongest quarter since 2007.
Among the biggest U.S. transactions was the $1.36 billion purchase of 111 Eighth Ave. in Manhattan by Google Inc. in December and Boston Properties Inc.’s $684 million acquisition of Boston’s John Hancock Tower, according to RCA.
With just over 1.3 billion people (1,330,044,605 as of mid-2008), China is the world's most populous country.
As the world's population is approximately 6.7 billion, China represents a full 20% of the world's population so one in every five people on the planet is a resident of China.
By the late 2010s, China's population is expected to reach 1.4 billion. Around 2030, China's population is anticipated to peak and then slowly start dropping.